Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Weather-Related Phenomena
Every year, weather-related or hydro-meteorological phenomena, such as floods, debris flow, avalanches, hurricanes, tornadoes, extra-tropical storms and heat waves, claim and affect many lives, cause damage, distress and economic losses around the world. These phenomena/events can be characterized by their frequency, intensity and spatial propagation. The presumable non-stationarity of weather patterns (frequency and intensity) tends to aggravate the consequences of these events. On the other hand, evaluation of the consequences of weather-related phenomena gains additional complexity due to the spatial and temporal evolution of the systems (e.g., buildings, infrastructure) exposed to them. Thus, the risk assessment for such events, by definition, encompasses and convolutes the time- and space- dependence in the weather-related events and in the exposed infrastructure/systems.
This mini-symposium is dedicated to the application of probability-based methods in risk assessment for weather-related phenomena. Given the incomplete knowledge and the uncertainty that characterizes predictions of future events, it is evident that probabilistic methods can be useful and versatile tools in different phases of risk assessment. Arguably, a decision-making process considering climate-change can benefit from the application of probability-based methods in many important phases such as: prediction of the intensity, frequency of occurrence and spatial extent of weather-related events; quantification of the vulnerability of the affected systems and resulting consequences in terms of financial losses, fatalities and business interruption. In particular, contributions in the following themes are welcome:
- Application of probabilistic methods in hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment for weather-related phenomena (e.g., flood, debris flow, avalanche, hurricanes, tornadoes, extra-tropical storms, heat waves, ..., etc.);
- Probabilistic characterization of frequency and intensity of weather-related phenomena;
- Modelling the spatial propagation of weather-related phenomena and the spatial correlation of the resulting intensity fields;
- Analytical methods for vulnerability assessment of the built environment and lifelines to weather-related hazards;
- Assessment of the social/functional and economic consequences of weather-related hazards.
- Fatemeh Jalayer
- Universitá degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Italy & Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk (AMRA), Italy.
- Paolo Bazzurro
- Istituto Universitario di Studi Superiori di Pavia, Italy.
- Carmine Galasso
- AIR WORLDWIDE Corporation, San Francisco, CA, USA.
- Giuseppe Aronica
- Universitá degli Studi di Messina, Italy.